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Canadian election results thread

Monday, May 2nd, 2011

Yeah Yeah, it’s only 3:30pm here in the UK, and the polls haven’t even opened in some parts of Canada, but here, as promised, is the live, election results thread. I won’t be posting anything until polls have actually closed in Newfoundland, but you’re free to post about what you saw at the polling station – turnout, comments from other voters, election officials/scrutineers/party volunteers behaving badly etc.

UPDATE

It’s midnight here in England. Polls are closing in Newfoundland as I type. Mrs. Beaver and the Beaver Kit are asleep and I’ve prepared myself for the long slog ahead with some cheap cider. I’ve also changed the comment section format so the newest comments appear at the top.

Remember, you’re free to post results as they come in, in the comments section, or, if you are concerned about retaining anonymity, you can email results directly to me at rdb787 -at- -yahoo- -dot- -co- -dot- -uk-.

UPDATE

Half an hour after the polls closed in Newfoundland we’re getting our first whisper of the results. In 2008 the Liberals took 6 seats and the NDP 1 seat. Current results show the Liberals leading/elected in 4, the NDP leading/elected in 2 and the Tories ahead narrowly in 1.

UPDATE

It’s coming up to 1:00 am here. Polls have now closed in the Maritime Provinces and results are trickling in. Grits are leading/elected in 10, the Tories in 5 and the Dippers in 3. It’s too early to tell how this will compare overall to 2008 but my gut instinct suggests that the Tories may eke out a few extra seats in Atlantic Canada at the expense of the Grits. The NDP results don’t suggest a massive orange wave, although again, it’s too early to tell.

Scratch that last sentence – NDP elected in leading in 9 ridings in Atlantic Canada! There are a total of 32 seats in Atlantic Canada (NFLD and the Maritimes). 2008 Results were Lib – 17, CPC – 10 , NDP -4, Ind 1. On the results we’re seeing it looks like the NDP may pick up several seats and the Tories and Liberals lose a few, although I suspect that the Tory support is more rural and counting will take longer in the more rural polls.

UPDATE

It’s about 5 minutes past 1 am. Latest results suggest that the Libs will give up several seats to the NDP in the maritimes whilst the Tories hold most or all of theirs. And I’ve finished the first can of Strongbow.

Word now is the Libs are elected or leading in 11, Tories in 13 and NDP in 8. If so the Tories will be very pleased.

OOPS

Looks like I’m popular tonight. The site crashed for a few minutes. This happened during the 2006 election but not last time. People are clearly interested in tonight’s results.

Update

It’s about 1:35 am here. Slight movement in that the Liberals are up one at the expense of the NDP but that’s just a bit of movement around the edges. What’s clear though is that both the Tories and the Dippers have picked up seats and vote share at the expense of the Grits.

UPDATE

Sorry to take so long to update but there hasn’t been much announced, only that the Tories and Dippers have firmed up their gains in the Maritimes. CPC 14 Lib 11 NDP 7.

Apparently the first results are coming in from Quebec, and the first riding reporting has the NDP leading.

Now we have reports from Quebec and Ontario. Tories 25, Libs 19, NDP 16. Reports suggest that Labrador of all places has fallen to the Tories, and Moncton to. I suspect that NDP/Lib vote splitting will help elect a fair number of Tories tonight.

It’s almost 3:00am here now. According to the results I’m getting, the Tories may be looking at a majority if results continue to hold. CPC leading or elected in 47, Libs, 24, NDP 24, Bloc 3. I have to say I’m pretty shocked by the Bloc results – although it may be that simply not a lot of Quebec ridings are reporting yet and the results are mixed up with Ontario.

Results are begining to come thick and fast as Ontario and La Belle Province begin reporting. With the proviso that I have no clue as to what the mix of ridings is reporting, it’s beginning to look like the Tories are on track for a majority. At last count it was CPC 73, NDP 30, Libs, 30, Block 4. It looks as if the NDP’s rise in the polls may have benefited the Conservatives by splitting votes with both the Liberals and the Bloc. The only think that might forstall a Tory majority is if the NDP can increase its seat count in the west where the Liberals are very weak, though I wouldn’t bet on it.

UPDATE.

It’s now 3:00am here and all I can say is Jesus Wept. CPC 122, NDP 58, Lib 26, Bloc 7. If these results hold I think it’s safe to say that Harper is going to have a very solid majority and we will also be witnessing a major political realignment in Canada that could well see the demise of the Liberal Party of Canada as we know it as well as the Bloc Quebecois (not that I care much about them). In fact I think the Bloc will be lucky to keep official party status.

I’ve just checked my site stats and it’s easy to see why it crashed twice earlier. So far I’ve had twice the traffic that I had in 2006 when I first live-blogged a Federal Election.

It looks as if fellow blogger Skippy Stalin will be crying in his beer tonight as one of his favourite MPs Ruby Dhalla is currently running in third place.

UPDATE

Election results are now available on line and it looks as if the NDP has routed the other parties in Quebec. According to CTV the NDP is elected or leading in 61 of Quebec’s 75 ridings with the Tories and Liberals tied with 5 each and the Bloc with 4. Given the questionable quality/commitment of many of the NDP’s Quebec candidates, Jack Layton’s going to have a his work cut out for him getting the most out of his caucus. If he doesn’t, amateurism could cost him dearly as it did the Action Democratique in Quebec.

WOW

In Etobicoke-Lakeshore Michael Ignatieff is down by approximately 900 votes behind the Tory candidate.

Likewise Gilles Duceppe looks set to lose.

UPDATE

So, you’d think that the NDP, riding a wave of popular support would pick up a bunch of seats in the province of it’s birth – Saskatchewan, but it looks like Stubblejumpers are having none of it. The Dippers might eke out a win in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, but that’s by no means guaranteed.

Likewise, the Tories look to save most or all of their seats in BC as well, leaving the NDP to pick up a few scraps from the Liberals. Given that BC once formed one of the main foundations of NDP support, this must be disappointing too.

Further to what I’ve just said in relation to BC and Saskatchewan, the NDP appears to have lost seats in Manitoba. So, while they’ve handily whipped the Liberals and the Bloc, it’s hard to see how they can beat the Tories in the future, unless they are able to substantially broaden their appeal.

And with that, I’m off to bed.